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Mr. and Mrs.President

See How They Ran

Love him or hate him, people have to be amazed by the transformation as George Bush leads his nation into war. The trauma of September 11 has given him a voice and a vision. While no Winston Churchill, he looks squarely into the camera, speaks in crisp, clear sentences, and now focuses on foreign policy, often to the exclusion of domestic issues. Moreover, this leader whose mandate seemed so fragile, this man who seemed destined to be a caretaker president, is gambling his presidency, his nation’s security, and the world’s stability, on a bold move to remove a ruthless adversary  – and all this in the face of an ambivalent United Nations and mass criticism. 

After months of debating, the best-case scenario is clear: As the coalition forces march in – and there still is a coalition involved -- the Iraqi soldiers repeat their Gulf War performance and flee. Saddam and his henchmen are soon caught and, with the coalition bombing more surgical this time and collateral damage limited, the Iraqi people hail their liberators. The victory resonates throughout the Arab world, spreading democracy and undermining terrorism. This being the 21^st century, the happy outcome needs two photo-ops – one of Iraqis cheering American soldiers and the second of huge stockpiles of Saddam’s lethal weapons.

Bush and his planners have worked hard to realize this best-case scenario. American is a unique power in world history, going to war armed with medicines and foodstuffs, as well as weapons.  However, the only law that always holds in war is the law of unintended consequences; the only guaranteed casualties are the status quo and the planners’ expectations. Alas, Bush and his aides have not conveyed a sense that they have prepared for the worst-case scenarios. The true test of leadership for Bush over the coming weeks, months, and years will be how he handles the unexpected and unhappy outcomes.

There is no doubt that Bush’s mettle will be tested. There may be great resistance and bloody battles by the Iraqi army, massive coalition or civilian casualties, another spectacular terrorist attack, economic misery in Iraq or the United States, an attempt by Saddam to broaden the war by bombing the Arab world’s favorite whipping boy, Israel. Moreover, even if America wins the war – as it did so quickly in Afghanistan – it risks losing the peace. The day after the war ends, the reconstruction or destruction of Iraq will begin. How the new Iraq, the new Middle East, and the new world order Bush is trying to create look in the future will require great will, skill, and luck. 

To succeed, President Bush needs to be blessed with the best traits of his predecessors: he needs Bill Clinton’s charisma, George Bush Senior’s affability, Ronald Reagan’s resolve, Jimmy Carter’s humanitarianism, Richard Nixon’s Machiavellianism, John F. Kennedy’s popularity, Franklin D. Roosevelt’s agility, Theodore Roosevelt’s moxie, Abraham Lincoln’s eloquence, and Thomas Jefferson’s wisdom. In fairness, no individual is blessed with all these attributes, but Bush may need to grow in this crisis – as he grew after September 11, when Americans already experienced what they hope will be the only “worst case scenario” of this war against terror. Bush may need to call Americans not only to action, which most are happy to do albeit from the comforts of their e-z chairs, but to call for genuine sacrifice. 

Bush has set the course. Now, in prosecuting the war and implementing the peace, he needs to keep his eye on the main goal, which is to create a safer, more secure world despite rogue nations and nihilistic terrorists. He may have to remember what Margaret Thatcher told Poppa Bush, just after Saddam invaded Kuwait: "Look George, this is no time to go wobbly.” So far, George the second hasn’t gone wobbly, let us hope that his strategy is correct and successful.

Gil Troy teaches history at McGill University.